Plenty of sports have incredibly high skill ceilings, and plenty of these sports have specialist positions that require even more talent and knowledge than the rest. No sport, however, has a position that requires both physical ability and mental prowess like football does with its quarterback. The position demands extreme arm talent, elite footwork, and a deep knowledge of the game and its tactics. It’s arguably the hardest assignment to play in sports, and there might be nothing harder in the coaching world than successfully scouting one.
Take two quarterback prospects in the NFL as an example. In 2007, the top-rated player coming out of college was Louisiana State quarterback JaMarcus Russell. He had led the Tigers to two extremely successful seasons and finished his career there with a 41-14 blowout of Notre Dame, and his massive frame (6’6”, 260 lbs.) and natural athleticism had NFL coaches salivating.
Another quarterback named Russell, this one Russell Wilson, was a prospect in 2012. While Wilson had a successful senior season with Wisconsin and set some NCAA records, his small stature at 5 feet 11 inches, and his slow release of the football had most professional scouts worrying about his potential in the NFL.
The professional careers of these two players, however, could not be any more different from their projections. JaMarcus entered the league with a contract dispute and never backed up his hype, throwing 18 touchdown passes to 23 interceptions while fumbling a whopping 25 times. He lost his job in 2009 and never played another NFL snap.
Russell Wilson, however, exceeded all expectations and set the rookie record for passer rating, a metric used to show how well a quarterback played. He went on to lead the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl in his second season and has only missed the playoffs in one season in his time in the league. He is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
These quarterbacks clearly show the difficulty in scouting quarterbacks out of college, and there may never have been a year where this difficulty has been highlighted more. Five quarterbacks were drafted in the top 15 picks in the 2021 draft, and most of them have struggled mightily in their first games. This only serves as more reminder that there are no sure things in football and there is nothing harder in the world of sports than judging quarterback talent.